14 Dec 00
(Sunup Program to be aired 15 Dec)1. It’s official. Vice President Gore congratulated President-elect Bush this week. Any comments?
–In spite of the fact that about half of the voters are mildly to bitterly disappointed, this is another reminder of just how remarkable our Constitution is.
–As our forefathers said we should do occasionally, we have just had a political revolution and the change of power is bloodless.
–Few countries in the world are strong enough to go through the bitter political and cultural divisiveness we’ve seen here without shedding blood.
2. What’s in store for President-elect Bush now?
–Welcome to reality President-elect Bush. As I go over the list, I’m not sure the winner really won.
–Here’s what he’s facing as the transition gets in full swing:
1. The presidential election was a statistical dead heat. The country is as politically and culturally divided as its ever been.
2. The Congress is very divided, and while there is much talk about bipartisanship, actions haven’t indicated that will occur easily or soon.
3. The economy seems to be in a slide. Most experts predict a slowdown; the question is whether it will be a soft or hard landing.
4. Mideast peace has evaporated, replaced with the beginnings of another war.
5. The need for a new farm bill within the next 2 years comes at a time when there is little or no consensus on what to do next.
6. Asian markets, just beginning to recover from their 1997 downturn, are holding their breath to see if the US economic downturn will send them into another tailspin.
7. Divided world trade partners can’t seem to get the WTO talks back on track after the December 99 Seattle talks fell apart.
8. The post-election soap opera has indicated we have an increasingly politicized and less respected court system, whether state or federal.
3. You mentioned a divided Congress. We still haven’t wrapped up this year’s Congressional agenda. What’s the latest?
–Congressional leaders have been negotiating with the Administration and appear close to a compromise.
–There are 3 spending bills yet to be acted on:
–Labor, HHS & Education
–Legislative
–Transportation
–Congress is on its 20th Continuing Resolution to extend spending thru Friday 15 Dec.
–Both the Senate and House have scheduled sessions for Friday to receive the compromise proposals and possibly vote.
–There are, however, dissidents on both sides of the issues. House Whip Tom Delay (R-TX) prefers no compromise and wait to start anew w/President Bush. Rep. David Obey (D-WI) is among Democrats who feel betrayed at the GOP retreat from pre-election promises on funding levels for key social programs.
–So, the compromise is not a done deal.
4. The Fed meets next Tuesday. What can we expect?
–Greenspan last week suggested that the strategy to hold down inflation could be changing.
–He said the economy has slowed enough and it is time to consider reducing interest rates.
–That’s not likely to occur next week, but producers can expect lower interest rates in the first half of next year.
–Reports this week showed that November retail sales dropped slightly, another indicator that the economy is slowing.
5. China’s talks with the WTO resumed Dec. 5. What’s the latest
–Some negotiators remain optimistic that China may become the 140th member of WTO in 2001, but talks are going slow.
–Nontariff measures, licensing, transparency, and intellectual property rights are just some of the stumbling blocks.
–China wants to be able to have discretionary use of export subsidies on agricultural products, and that’s causing problems in the talks w/US.
–If there are no further "incidences" that reflect negatively on China, things should proceed.
–China is facing internal strife from rural farm areas that feel threatened by this move.
6. Congress
a. Recent/Current:
–Few House and Senate sessions on continuing resolutions.
–Few committee meetings to wrap up business
–Congress is sending the President a bankruptcy reform bill (HR2415) that is likely to be vetoed because of consumer opposition. While the veto would likely be sustained, Congress may not want to stay around to do so.
b. Upcoming:
–Primary focus is to complete action on all appropriations bills & close 106th Session begun 5 Dec.
c. Other key issues for this session of 106th Congress:
–dealing w/Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid (little change likely this year)
--consideration of tax cut & appropriations bills
(tax cuts for farmers appear dead).